Issued in December each year, and updated the following summer, the VisitBritain forecast for the volume and value of inbound tourism explores the factors likely to shape trends over the coming year.
In 2015 VisitBritain predicts 2.5% growth in volume, and 4.5% growth in value for inbound tourism.
These forecasts suggest that there will be 35.1 million visits in 2015 generating visitor spending of £22.2bn. The forecast envelope for the volume forecast is -0.5% to +5.5% while for visitor spending it is +1.5% to +7.5%.
Uncertain economic outlook
The global economic outlook remains highly uncertain with the Eurozone potentially heading back into recession with the added risk of deflation.
Allied to the economic uncertainties there is potential for unexpected and sharp movements in relative exchange rates which can significantly impact on the volume of visitors in the longer term, and how much existing visitors spend in the short-term – the forecast assumes £1 remains at a rate of around $1.60 and €1.25 during 2015 – but there is a realistic chance that the pound will strengthen as the UK economy continues to improve which could put downward pressure on the spending power of overseas visitors to Britain.
Additional factors
With worries about the global economy mounting the price of oil is currently at a five-year low, which in theory is good news for international travel as it will help put downward pressure on travel costs.
International tourism is fiercely competitive and many destinations continue to make policy adjustments aimed at making their offer more appealing to potential visitors. Families with younger children choosing to visit Britain will not have to pay Air Passenger Duty for any under 12s after May 2015 if travelling in economy class.
Geopolitical developments are always a risk, and this would appear to be especially the case for 2015.
An upside risk is improvements in Britain’s connectivity delivered through airlines deploying larger aircraft on routes from Asia and the Middle East to Britain, and new routes to various UK airports from the USA set to begin during 2015.