A new report by CGA Strategy forecasts projected market size, sector volume and value trends for the licensed trade to 2018. Café-Wine Bars, Premium Spirits and Cask Ale are predicted to be tomorrow’s winners.
On trade represents 61% of the value of alcohol sales
GB remains one of the largest global territories for sales of alcoholic beverages. Last year the GB on trade was worth a combined £39 billion in food and drink retail sales; £24 billion delivered by wet sales alone. On trade volumes may be declining more quickly than off trade volumes, but the on trade still represents 61% of the value of alcohol sales in GB and is growing value share.
7,704 outlets to close
Yet operating in the market is not all smooth sailing. Whilst operational excellence is apparent the length and breadth of Britain, so too is its polar opposite – and in the context of declining consumer engagement it’s these less evolved venues that are informing the market and drinks sector performance trends of overall decline.
The on-trade universe will shrink by a further 7,704 outlets over the next five years with the majority of the closures coming within the next two years. Challenging trading over the next two years will disproportionately affect those outlets which have not adapted to capitalise on emergent consumer trends and are consequently at a competitive disadvantage.
Pockets of strong growth
There are certain pockets of strong growth forecasted, however, which will help change the shape of the on-trade as we currently see it. The report forecasts the growth of specific trading styles and consumption trends across the wet and dry mix, providing the reader with the path to growth.
Author of the report, CGA’s Alex Eyre commented, “Our latest future forecasting report gets to the heart of the issues characterising the licensed trade in 2013. On the retail side we’re seeing a multiplicity of successful retail models, from the slick operational excellence of the major national chains to entrepreneurial and creative dynamism of emerging local talent both continuing to drive onward growth. On the supply side, a proliferation of new premium brands and products feed and cultivate demand from consumers. It’s the consumer’s thirst for discovery and experience that will drive the on trade forward sustainably.”
To find out more on The Future Forecasting Report 2013 click here
For more information about CGA strategy click here